Cyber Black Friday

November 28th, 2008

Our Target:

 Content Reviews 2241 Conpics Logo

Our Venue:

 Images G 01 Gno Images General Navamazonlogofooter. V264586593

Our Method:
Around 3 weeks ago, we signed up for an Amazon SMS alert service to announce Wii Fit availability. Around 9 PM Thanksgiving day, we received a message with this URL, <http://www.amazon.com/fit>, for a midnight Pacific time sale. My bride and I prepared for our click through ordeal. I logged in to Amazon and turned on 1-Click ordering. My bride got our Amazon gift certificates and we entered in our numbers. (We were saving the certificates to buy the Wii Fit.) Then we set Safari to point at the “magic” URL and put the machine to sleep. I then set my trusty iPhone’s alarm to ring at 1:55 Central time (11:55 Pacific).

The alarm rang. Ouf … I am getting too old for this.

Find my cloak of modesty …

Don’t trip going down stairs …

Wake the computer … (I hope it isn’t as grumpy as me.)

W00t! No wakey, wakey problems!

Refresh the Page.

SWEET! 3 minutes before 2 AM PST I can order. SWEET!

I press 1-Click FTW!

Going bi-modal - liberals, conservatives and libertarians, oh my…

November 11th, 2008

It is very easy go all bi-modal on issues: left v. right, libertarian v. authoritarian, my religion v. yours and everyone else’s religion, Vorlons v. Shadows.

These are all analysis errors pushed through narrow rhetorical “pipes” and distribution “tubes”. There is too much signal lost in this process and one cannot make useful decisions depending on these analyses. Cue the Einstein quote about simplicity…

For example, my outsiders view of evangelical Christians is that there is some realization of this problem. The “What Would Jesus Doers” or Gospelists (my neologism) have figured out that there are other issues besides the “Pro-life” anti-abortion issue. Pro-life has been used as a narrow label for a very complex set of values and this actually, IMO, precluded Pro-lifers from accomplishing their anti-abortion or most any other mission. Some have figured out that they allowed themselves to be suckered for their vote. Their fringe view was never going to be approved by freely elected politicians. (I understand that 70% of the population supports first trimester abortion rights.) They are growing into a broader agenda. And a new set of leaders are emerging from this process. They are actually hearing the criticism, IMO, that if you’re Pro-life, then you’re pro- all life. And the “monolithic” evangelical movement appears to be fracturing and evolving. I think this is helpful. There are many common values I share with Gospelists. As they relax their grip on this narrow, restrictive label, there is more we can accomplish together.

Yes, bi-modal argumentation is “easier”. There is a false view, frequently expressed elsewhere, that certain legal decisions can be categorized simply. That a legal decision is somehow liberal or conservative. We all know this is simply not the case; the law is just too analog. (Yes, there is the claim that so many small quanta/states of the legal system appear to be analog while still being “digital”. Because the constituent particles of the law, legal terms and definitions, are subject to human interpretation by judges, I contend that there is no way effectively to characterize the law as quantized around a bi-modal distribution upon any axis of interest.)

We have seen this in almost every debate venue. Someone uses a simple mischaracterization of their opponents position in a short, not so pithy sound bite. They somehow think that simple labels from a simplistic categorization can somehow be used to organize a debate about complex issues. They shortchange themselves, as the Pro-life community has done, by embracing ineffective simplicity.

I’m glad we’re all hard to label. I’m also glad that that Biden, McCain, Obama and, even, Palin are also hard to label. (OK, maybe Palin isn’t that hard to label but let’s leave it at that… ;-)

Labels substitute for respect for your colleagues and these serious issues. They are framing devices about building popular electoral advantage and not debating policy. That’s why I really liked it when Obama would call this stuff out as part of the “silly season” in the election. I would hope that we, as engineers, would try to reject simplistic labels and, especially, labeling people. They are not helpful.

Andrew

P.S. For the record, if there must be labels, here is how I would label myself:

Fiscally Sustainable (Pro- “Pay-Go”, Infrastructure Development Projects [pork-lite], require ROI calculations.)

Social Foundationist (Pro- Rule of Law, Social Security, Universal Healthcare)

Rational Policy Wonk (While the process is anything but rational, rationality does help policy be effective.)

National Security Bear (Not a hawk or an eagle but it scares the crap out of Colbert.) Also, a bear stays home and competing with the Russians in almost everything feels “natural”.

Technological Innovationist (All economic progress devolves from technological innovation and invention.)

Peak-monger (The 4 peaks of the apopcalypse: Peak Population, Peak Temperature, Peak Water and Peak Oil.)

No rocks or pebbles in my head…

November 11th, 2008

Im-0001-0010

As of November 07, 2008, I don’t see any rocks or pebbles.

The road ahead will be long…

November 5th, 2008

This man, President-elect Obama, touched something in me.

He speaks to a deep need in me for social relevance and responsibility. I hope he touches something in you.

“The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America - I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you - we as a people will get there.”

. . .

“And to all those who have wondered if America’s beacon still burns as bright - tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope.”

– President-elect Obama, Nov. 4, 2008

Yes! We! Can!

Obama Acceptance Speech Party

August 29th, 2008

Obama Accepts
Top Row (L to R): Marc Gold, Mark Moeckel, Terry Harris, Jeb Boyt, Tom Myer
Bottom Row (L to R): Darren Keefe, Jackie O’Keefe, Nada Lulic, Hope Doty

Geek Salon is a go!

August 25th, 2008

Sarah Eckhardt has agreed to participate in our first Geek Salon. I will invite technologists when we have an agenda. Sarah has left it up to me to pick a theme. Here are some candidates:

  • Criteria for choosing electronic voting machines.
  • Criteria for supporting telecommuting.
  • Criteria for choosing alternative energy technologies.
  • Criteria for growing the technology community in Central Texas.

I’ll be calling you for both your opinion and whether you’ll attend a Salon.

Why I Oppose the Nacogdoches Biomass Power Plant.

August 20th, 2008

Below is my letter opposing the City of Austin’s investment of $2.3 billion in a biomass power plant in Nacogdoches, Texas.

The Austin-American Statesman’s Editorial of Sunday, August 17th provides some context.

__________

Mayor Wynn,

As a former Resource Management Commissioner, I wish to register my objection to our City signing a power purchase agreement to build a biomass plant in Nacogdoches, Texas before the end of August, 2008.

There are two issues that need to be considered before approving this power purchase agreement.

First, it does not appear that competing bids were solicited to build or operate this plant. Other builders of these plants offer lower cost per MWh or lower construction costs. For example, without too much effort on my part, I have found one vendor, American Biorefining and Energy, Inc., who gave me a budgetary quote of $80/MWh. This is significantly below the $131/MWh ($2.3B / (20 yr * 8,760 h/yr * 100 MW)) cost of the proposed power purchase agreement. While many factors go into calculating the cost of a power plant, the $131/MWh price gives me pause. This price exceeds the cost of solar power as determined by Austin Energy’s 2006 Value of Solar Study of $104/MWh. This price was seen as too high in 2006. Yet it is less than the biomass plant’s power prices. While Mr. Duncan justifiably claims that a biomass plant allows Austin Energy to dispatch power to control its costs and improve system reliability, is that feature really worth a $27/MWh premium over the price of solar power and an even higher premium over the price of wind power? I have been told that engineering studies claim that an energy generation system can be reliably operated with less than 30% of non-dispatchable, renewable power. The other generators can provide enough flexibility for reliable operation of the system. Perhaps, because we have less than 30% of our power from non-dispatchable sources, it is too early in our energy mix to pay a $27/MWh premium for a biomass generating plant?

I have found a second vendor, Energy Products of Idaho, who gave me a budgetary quote of $170 M to build 3 33 MW plants or about $1,700 per kW of generation capacity. They expressed to me that the $131/MWh operating expense seemed high to them.

Since no competitive bidding was performed, I am justifiably concerned that we are significantly over paying for this plant. Of course, if we can get a price closer to $80/MWh, most of my objections except the below point are withdrawn.

Second, it is not clear from what I have seen whether we are locking in the price of fuel in this power purchase agreement. Considering the volatility in all fuel prices and the dramatic increase in the price of corn-derived ethanol over the last 2 years, I am concerned that we are exposed to an increase in the cost of fuel. Frankly, as a businessman, I would be very surprised if Nacogdoches Power would provide a 20 year fixed price without a fuel price escape clause. Since our staff believes that a biomass plant is a good idea, will every other power generator in the country jump on this bandwagon too? This would bid up the price of fuel thus driving up the price of our generated power. Since I cannot see the economics behind our purchase agreement, I cannot assess how vulnerable we are to fuel price increases.

Finally, if Council chooses to delay this agreement, I, as a former Resource Management Commissioner, would like to join a task force to examine our biomass and other energy generation options in more detail.

Geek Salon

August 19th, 2008

After my “Unity Through BBQ” party for my precinct, Travis County Commissioner Sarah Eckhardt wants to follow up on the idea of creating a “Geek Salon”. She learned that I had brought a group together to try and advise Tim Mahoney, an ACC Trustee. She wants to expand this effort into something more formal. For example, she has a voting machine problem in our county. How and what would unbiased technologists advise Ms. Eckhardt to do?

Geek Salon Principles:

1) These are social gatherings hosted at a citizen’s house addressing issues of community interest. The invited politician is a guest. This is not, as defined by statute, an official public meeting.

2) Participants must not have a direct business interest in the subject of discussion. These are technical discussions. Exploring how technical choices affect policy is a major goal. (This should be a similar process to how technical issues are decided in the Linux community.)

3) There will be one major topic of discussion. This will be published in the email invitation. Only RSVP as attending if you are prepared to discuss this issue.

4) Even though this is not a public meeting, minutes will be taken and published. This ensures the Salon’s independence from financial bias.

5) Attendees are welcome to suggest new topics and participants for future Salons.

It helps if you like BBQ. (For you vegetarians, I make a great smoked portobello mushroom.)

A Tailgate Party at the Opera

August 14th, 2008

080812 Opera Tailgate Party

Opera Goers Tailgate Too!
But have cooler cars.
The Santa Fe Opera,
August 12, 2008,
Adrianna Mater.

Poem: Breakfast by Nancy R Wrocklage

August 3rd, 2008

Breakfast

The old blind dog
with the bad gall bladder
and the diabetes and stones,
who is losing his hearing
and his teeth
thunks the bone
of his tail on the linoluem,
reminding me not to forget him,
reminding me he still
would like the last sweet taste
of my oatmeal and milk,
reminding me that hope
should be the last thing
to go

-Nancy R Wrocklage

Thanks to Cheryl Silver for bringing this poem to our neighborhood’s attention.